AGP Executive Report

Zambia Election Tensions: Observers say intimidation, violence and even abductions marred Zambia’s polls as vote counting was briefly suspended after attacks on polling staff and alleged ballot-paper theft; President Hakainde Hichilema holds a lead with nearly half the constituencies declared. Sudan Political Roadmap: Sudan’s PM says a national dialogue will start “soon” to drive reconciliation, constitutional reconstruction and free elections, while insisting the SAF and RSF should not be treated as equal and warning against foreign interference. Nigeria Osun Aftermath: INEC declared Ademola Adeleke winner of the Osun governorship race, but opposition parties and groups are pressing INEC over a reported four-hour interruption in IReV result uploads; Tinubu also publicly congratulated Adeleke, while ADC and others frame the outcome as a warning for 2027. SADC Summit Security: Durban braces for an anti-immigrant march as South Africa takes the Sadc chairship, with migration policy a flashpoint. Ceuta Migration Protest: Hundreds of migrants in Spain’s Ceuta staged a beach protest demanding asylum rather than return to Morocco. Sahel Lithium and Conflict: A new focus on lithium supply highlights how armed groups exploit the mineral boom amid weak governance across Sahel states. China–Africa Trade Push: Nigeria’s lawmakers say China’s zero-tariff expansion could spur African industrial transformation if countries build productive capacity. FIFA Infantino Fallout: Infantino’s commercial spin-off plan has triggered backlash and intensified calls for action ahead of March FIFA elections.

Osun Election Fallout (Nigeria): INEC collation in Osogbo shows Accord Party governor Ademola Adeleke tightening his grip, winning 19 of 30 local governments so far and leading in key LGAs including Osogbo (36,480 votes) and Ede North, as APC’s Bola Oyebamiji takes 11 LGAs; the race remains headed for final declaration. Electoral Integrity (Zambia): AU-COMESA and SADC election observers urge calm after Zambia’s vote counting was briefly suspended amid violence and claims of ballot theft, with counting later resuming and President Hakainde Hichilema holding an early lead. Migration & Border Pressure (North Africa): Morocco detains 111 migrants near Ceuta after social-media calls for another mass crossing, using tear gas and boosting security after a deadly surge earlier this month. Regional Diplomacy (SADC): South Africa prepares to assume the SADC chair in Durban, pushing migration facilitation, trade, critical minerals and industrialisation as leaders seek practical delivery of regional commitments. Energy Policy (South Africa): A new push highlights that South Africa’s renewables plans may be missing concentrating solar power—well-suited to the country’s dry, clear conditions—just as coal plants retire and replacement demand grows. Crime & Governance (South Africa): Reports on gang violence and police operations intensify debate over constitutional policing, with criticism growing that deployments have not translated into convictions.

Osun Election Watch: Nigeria’s INEC has begun uploading Osun governorship results on IReV, with early figures showing Accord Party candidate Ademola Adeleke winning his Ede North polling unit (421 votes) while APC scored first wins in other units; the race is already marred by Election Integrity Concerns including allegations of agent tag denials, voter intimidation, vote-buying claims, and thugs disrupting voting. Legal Battles in Nigeria: ADC presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar’s court challenge to President Tinubu’s 2027 eligibility over certificate discrepancies was dismissed by lawyer Maduabuchi Idam as “dead on arrival,” warning of institutional weakness that could erode public faith. Migration and Border Tensions: Morocco arrested at least 111 people trying to enter Spain’s Ceuta after social-media calls for another mass crossing, as Spain faces scrutiny over whether warnings before the July surge were ignored. Security in Borno: Nigeria’s Operation Hadin Kai says troops repelled an ISWAP attack on a Borno forward base, killing attackers and recovering weapons. Regional Politics and Diplomacy: South Africa’s Ramaphosa told SADC leaders he is “deeply ashamed” over violence against foreign nationals, while DRC and Rwanda agreed new steps to monitor their peace deal.

Somalia Regional Integration: Somalia wrapped a three-day Mogadishu workshop to craft a national strategy for regional integration and trade corridors, focusing on ports, roads, border crossings and investment links. Nigeria 2027 Court Battle: Atiku Abubakar and the ADC filed in Nigeria’s Federal High Court to challenge President Tinubu’s eligibility for 2027, alleging NYSC certificate forgery and seeking disqualification. South Africa Xenophobia & Islamophobia: South Africa’s political debate is increasingly blending anti-migrant rhetoric with Islamophobia, while President Ramaphosa condemned attacks and discrimination against foreign nationals ahead of the SADC summit. South Africa Police Integrity: Parliament heard that senior SAPS officials face hundreds of lifestyle-declaration discrepancies, including undeclared vehicles, properties and company links. Shell Legal Setback: South Africa’s Constitutional Court permanently blocked Shell’s Wild Coast offshore exploration over consultation failures and environmental concerns. Migration Pressure at Ceuta: Spain and Morocco boosted security around Ceuta after fears of another mass border rush following the July crossings. FIFA Infantino Rift: Gianni Infantino’s FIFA leadership faces a widening political split as federations reassess support ahead of the 2027 congress. Burkina Faso Press Freedom: Burkina Faso’s military-led government trained dozens of journalists in “patriotism” drills with rifles, drawing renewed criticism of press freedom.

South Africa–UN-Habitat Partnership: South Africa and UN-Habitat will launch a new UN-Habitat country office in Tshwane, aiming to deepen cooperation on housing, spatial transformation and sustainable urban development. Nigeria Anti-Corruption Push: Nigeria’s labour movement (NLC) and ITUC-Africa call kleptocracy and illicit financial flows “acts of war,” urging whistleblower protection, specialised anti-graft courts and stronger recovery of stolen assets. Nigeria Election Pressure (Osun): President Tinubu tells INEC and security agencies to ensure a peaceful, transparent Osun governorship vote as a “test case” for 2027, while political tensions and accusations swirl ahead of Saturday’s poll. Court Challenge to Tinubu (2027): Atiku Abubakar and the ADC file to disqualify Tinubu over an alleged forged NYSC discharge certificate, with the case also drawing in constitutional and Electoral Act 2026 arguments. Zambia Vote Counting Disrupted: Zambia’s electoral commission resumes counting after suspending it over violence and ballot theft, as Hichilema seeks a second term against Mundubile. SADC Migration Warning: Ramaphosa warns SADC leaders that anti-immigrant exclusion on streets undermines regional integration, condemning attacks on foreign nationals. Ghana AU Chair Prep: Ghana’s Mahama sets up a committee to craft an AU strategy and implementation plan ahead of his January 2027 chairmanship. Nigeria–China Trade & Aquatic Protocol: Nigeria’s power minister urges fast implementation of the Nigeria–China aquatic products protocol after reporting $18bn bilateral trade in H1 2026.

Kenya World Championships bid: Athletics Kenya says Nairobi has submitted a government-backed bid to host the 2029 World Athletics Championships—an Africa-first senior event on home soil. South Africa immigration overhaul: President Ramaphosa launched South Africa’s Electronic Travel Authorization, with thousands of suspicious applications rejected and a 500-rand processing fee set for eligible travellers. Local governance pressure on the ANC: A Friday briefing warns the ANC’s municipal performance is dragging it down ahead of November local elections, citing service failures and by-election losses. Osun election watch (Nigeria): As Nigeria’s Osun governorship vote nears, parties are in last-minute court battles and defections, with security and vote-buying concerns raised by election monitors. Eskom and power politics: NUMSA warns Eskom’s planned unbundling could weaken the utility and open the door to more private control. Water accountability debate: South Africa’s push to hold municipal managers personally criminally liable for water failures faces pushback from local government bodies. FIFA leadership turmoil: Ireland withdraws support for Gianni Infantino’s re-election bid, adding to mounting governance and consultation concerns. Transnet funding push: South Africa’s ports and rail operator seeks up to R35bn for upgrades through 2030 to ease transport constraints on growth. Libya oil windfall, IMF warning: Libya reports strong first-half oil earnings, but analysts warn windfalls could worsen the country’s crisis if governance and spending stay uncontrolled.

South Africa Unemployment Shock: Statistics South Africa puts joblessness at 33.6% in Q2 2026, reigniting debate over what’s driving the crisis and whether scapegoating migrants is masking deeper economic problems. Migration Cost Dispute: South Africa seeks reimbursement for deportation and repatriation expenses—while Ghana insists its evacuation of nationals was fully self-funded and not part of any $18m bill. Nigeria Policing Reform: Tinubu’s Presidential Working Group extended submissions on the National Policing Bill to Aug 21, aiming to broaden consultation and set accountability and rights safeguards. Osun Election Tensions: Yiaga Africa flags security threats, BVAS failures and vote-buying ahead of Nigeria’s Aug 15 governorship poll, as Peter Obi urges peaceful, intimidation-free voting. Zambia Poll Test: Zambians vote in presidential, parliamentary and local elections as Hakainde Hichilema seeks a second term on economic recovery, with cost-of-living pressure still biting. Ebola Escalation in DR Congo: A new Ebola case in Bas-Uele follows a death of a motorcycle driver, raising exposure fears as the outbreak grows. FIFA Infantino Pressure: UEFA and CAF-linked voices intensify calls for Infantino’s future to be decided through governance changes and, increasingly, an election. Public Health Agenda: Africa CDC prepares CPHIA 2026, pushing health security and sovereignty with calls for abstracts and reviewers. Water Security Focus: Water Security Africa Johannesburg launches a programme centered on investment and implementation to build resilience against South Africa’s water risks.

South Africa Border Tech: President Cyril Ramaphosa launched an Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) system to speed up travel while tightening border management, aiming to boost tourism, trade and investment. Migration Costs & Diplomacy: South Africa demanded about $18m from Ethiopia, Malawi and Nigeria to reimburse deportation expenses, escalating tensions over xenophobia-era enforcement. Zambia Election Watch: Polls opened in Zambia’s presidential vote as voters weigh Hakainde Hichilema’s reforms against high living costs; the race is seen as a referendum on jobs, inflation and electricity reliability. ConCourt Impeachment Fallout: South Africa’s Constitutional Court refused to fast-track an appeal over Ramaphosa’s impeachment process, with critics warning delays could blunt accountability. TVET Quality Push: South Africa’s higher education minister urged against judging the whole TVET sector by isolated problems found during oversight visits, including staffing qualification gaps. Football Governance: CAF president Patrice Motsepe backed FIFA’s Infantino staying in the race until the 2027 vote by member associations. Climate & Ocean Policy: Six African countries now support a precautionary pause on deep-sea mining amid governance and science gaps. Regional Energy: Tanzania highlighted natural gas as a route to cleaner cooking and energy security, targeting reliance on charcoal and firewood. SADC UN Gender Bid: South Africa’s Ronald Lamola urged SADC states to back a woman for UN secretary-general.

South Africa Immigration Tech: President Cyril Ramaphosa launched an Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) at OR Tambo, rejecting 6,126 fraudulent visa applications and using biometric checks to speed lawful travel while tightening border security. Elections & Political Tension (Nigeria): Atiku Abubakar warned INEC, security agencies and the Tinubu administration against militarising Osun’s governorship vote, citing risks of “mysterious glitches” and partisan use of state power. Local Governance (South Africa): The ANC admitted municipalities still struggle with ageing infrastructure, water losses, service interruptions and housing backlogs, even as it points to progress under interventions. West Africa Press Freedom: MFWA urged Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Guinea to end arbitrary arrests and prolonged detention of journalists and civil society actors. Health Crisis (DR Congo): Ebola deaths in the DRC have crossed 2,000 as cases surge across provinces. Regional Climate Finance: ECOWAS pushed to build a regional carbon market platform to close a $294bn climate-finance gap. Ghana FinTech Push: Communications minister Samuel Nartey George backed homegrown fintech via the MoMo FinTech Lab, urging local innovators to compete globally. Uganda Diplomacy: Ambassador Adonia Ayebare formally took over as Uganda’s foreign affairs minister, promising continuity and stronger consular and investor support. South Africa Women’s Day Moment: Ramaphosa drew viral attention after a playful “Gen Z” gesture during Women’s Day celebrations at the Union Buildings.

Deep Offshore Oil Deal: Nigeria’s President Tinubu signed a 2026 incentives order for deep offshore oil and gas, aiming to unlock up to $50bn in investment and speed up projects like Bonga South West. EV Push vs Power Reality: Nigeria approved tax waivers for nearly 4,000 electric vehicles in H1, but chronic electricity shortages keep EV economics tough. Migration Costs & Politics: South Africa spent R292m repatriating foreign nationals and is seeking reimbursement from Malawi, Nigeria and Ethiopia, as Home Affairs rolls out an Electronic Travel Authorisation system. Elections Under Strain: South Africa’s SABC says it needs about R120m for fair local election coverage, while 27,092 teaching posts remain vacant. Security & Justice: South Africa’s Madlanga Commission begins a new phase probing alleged KZN police hit squads linked to organised crime. Osun Vote Tension: Nigeria’s Osun governorship race heats up amid claims of outdated BVAS and warnings against violence. Zambia Poll Test: Zambia goes to the polls to judge Hichilema’s economic reforms against high living costs. Regional Integration: Ramaphosa’s SADC Vision 2050 keynote spotlights industrialisation, infrastructure and shared prosperity. Mining Tragedy: At least 14 artisanal miners died in a South African illegal mine collapse. Women-Led Governance: India and Liberia discussed women-led development and gender-responsive governance through an IBSA/UN Women peer learning mission.

Ebola Surge in DRC: The Democratic Republic of Congo reports 2,011 Ebola deaths out of 4,381 cases, with 704 patients in isolation, as health teams in places like Mongbwalu expand treatment capacity and contact monitoring amid fears the outbreak is outpacing tracing. South Africa Renewable Push: South Africa commissions a major Mpumalanga wind phase, part of a hybrid renewable complex, as the government touts clean-energy investment momentum and grid-scale delivery. Nigeria Election Tech Under Fire: Atiku Abubakar warns INEC’s BVAS runs on outdated Android 10, raising cyber and operational risks ahead of 2027 polls, while opposition figures also trade accusations over election integrity. Osun Vote Diplomacy Row: Music star Davido urges US President Trump to monitor Nigeria’s Osun election, drawing backlash over sovereignty and the proper role of foreign pressure. Uganda Financial Scandal Fallout: Uganda’s Museveni orders fresh investigations into the Shs60bn Bank of Uganda scandal, reinstating Principal Accountant General Lawrence Ssemakula and directing CID and DPP to hunt “real culprits.” Ghana Decentralisation & Heritage: Ghana marks decentralisation with a focus on water and sanitation delivery, while launching a three-year EU Sankofa II push to protect forts and boost the cultural and creative sector. South Africa Child Protection Court Win: A Pretoria High Court ruling says failures to keep the National Child Protection Register updated are unconstitutional, tightening duties on social development and related agencies.

FIFA Infantino Crisis: UEFA, AFC and CONCACAF escalated pressure on Gianni Infantino with an open letter accusing him of “deception” over the abandoned FIFA Forward Enterprise plan; the dispute is now tied to his March reelection bid as Trump also publicly backed him. South Africa Local Politics: The IEC set the 4 November local government election timetable, closing the voters’ roll at 29 million and laying out hard deadlines for objections, nominations and certified lists. South Africa Security & Governance: Police Minister Firoz Cachalia vowed more resources for gang-hit areas after the killing of anti-gang unit officers in Reiger Park, with top SAPS leadership pulled in. South Africa Daily Life: Severe winter weather disrupted power and travel in KwaZulu-Natal as Eskom investigated outages linked to snow and heavy rain. Nigeria Politics & Economy: Former minister Oby Ezekwesili urged Nigerians to reject “decline” thinking ahead of 2027 and back character-led leadership, while Reuters highlighted rising cost-of-living pressures after Tinubu’s reforms. Regional Security Cooperation: Uganda’s UPDF chief called for stronger Eastern Africa Standby Force institutions to anticipate threats and reduce reliance on external support. Trade Talks: India and the SACU bloc are set to sign ToRs on Aug 12 to begin negotiations on a preferential trade agreement.

FIFA Power Struggle: UEFA, AFC and CONCACAF issued a joint open letter attacking Gianni Infantino over his abandoned plan to sell stakes in World Cup commercial rights, calling for unity and a fully independent review as his re-election fight heats up. Zambia Election Watch: With 13 August polls looming, analysis says Hakainde Hichilema has a strong shot at a first-round win, while the race is shaped by opposition fragmentation and state interference fears. Osun Campaign Politics: Nigeria’s ADC leaders Atiku Abubakar and Rauf Aregbesola stormed Osogbo for the governorship finale, while the AAC protested its exclusion from an Arise News town hall. Land Rights Debate in South Africa: Research suggests many rural South Africans don’t want formal title deeds, fearing new levies and distrusting municipalities. Digital Governance Push: Ethiopia’s MESOB showcased integrated one-stop digital services to visiting African ambassadors. Climate Negotiations: African negotiators met in Accra to consolidate priorities for COP31 and the Global Just Transition Mechanism. Security Update: Nigeria’s troops repelled an ISWAP attack on a Borno base, killing attackers and recovering weapons. Migration Flashpoint (Ceuta): Spain cancelled leave for troops in Ceuta as leaders demand faster detention and expulsion of migrants after the July surge.

Zambia Election Watch: New pre-election analysis gives President Hakainde Hichilema and the UPND a 70–80% chance of winning in the first round, citing ballot access as the clearest structural edge, with a run-off still possible. Nigeria Security & Politics: The Nigerian Air Force says it killed nine ISWAP fighters, including a key commander, in a precision strike in Borno. In the 2027 race, the Presidency hit back at Atiku Abubakar over claims of a security “blood-soaked” record, while Tinubu urged clerics to keep speaking out against terrorism and banditry. Regional Trade Friction: Nigerian onion exporters have halted shipments to Ghana amid a dispute, with ECOWAS urged to help broker a lasting deal. Health & Procurement: Zimbabwe’s pharma manufacturers warn public drug buying has collapsed to about 1% locally, urging government procurement to prioritize domestic medicines. Women’s Rights & Safety: South Africa’s Ramaphosa condemned the Taliban’s ban on Afghan women at Women’s Day events, while Zimbabwe also saw renewed debate after a fatal domestic-violence case in Bulawayo. Visa Liberalisation: Chad plans visa-free entry for all Africans from Jan 1, 2027, joining a growing list of countries easing movement.

ICC Withdrawal Wave: Chad has joined Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in withdrawing from the International Criminal Court, citing an “unbalanced” approach, as the ICC also faces internal turmoil over the removal of Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan amid sexual misconduct allegations. Somalia Governance & Security: Somalia’s political transition remains contested after President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s term expired, while the U.S. move to block AUSSOM renewal raises pressure on the AU-backed security mission. Nigeria 2027 Transparency Push: SERAP urges all 19 cleared presidential candidates to publish assets and reject vote-buying, as opposition figures argue the Tinubu administration’s security record is “soaked in blood” and accuse federal institutions of political targeting. Osun Campaign Rights Clash: Nigeria’s ADC and AAC condemn a reported attempt by the Oluwo of Iwoland to bar other presidential candidates from campaigning in Osun, calling it unconstitutional. South Africa Anti-Gang Crackdown: Acting Police Minister Firoz Cachalia warns gang leaders after the killing of anti-gang officers in Reiger Park, urging community action to reclaim streets. Zimbabwe Illegal Mining Task Force: Zimbabwe sets up a task force to curb illegal mining in Bindura, citing damage to infrastructure, health risks and pollution. BRICS Culture Diplomacy: BRICS culture ministers adopt the Bhopal Declaration to expand cultural and creative-industry cooperation.

FIFA Power Struggle: FIFA has defended Gianni Infantino’s mandate and warned that any push to challenge him must follow FIFA statutes, as allegations over a UEFA payment and the collapse of his FIFA Forward Enterprise plan deepen the leadership crisis. Public Spending Debate: A Ghana-based policy voice argues Africa’s problem is not revenue generation but turning budgets into real infrastructure, health, education and industrial gains through stronger accountability. Maritime Security: The UAE says it is gravely concerned by Iran’s attacks on commercial shipping and the Strait of Hormuz closure, urging reopening and protection of freedom of navigation. Ghana Gold Reform: Ghana’s Gold Board (GoldBod) is framed as a bid to tighten the gold supply chain, curb smuggling and tax leakages, and improve financial integrity. South Africa Migration Fallout: After xenophobic violence, factories and farms report labour gaps as migrant workers flee; deportations and repatriations continue amid rights concerns. Nigeria Deportation Rights: A Nigerian lawyer says US deportation flights have returned detainees manacled and shackled, calling for a bilateral deal for dignified returns. Zimbabwe Fertiliser Push: Zimbabwe targets self-sufficiency in basal fertiliser by 2027 with a US$153m programme to cut import drains. Regional Water Cooperation: Lesotho and Botswana open a project office in Maseru to advance the water transfer scheme under ORASECOM. Elections and Allegations: In Nigeria’s Osun, fear rises over political killings and security deployments as parties trade blame over EFCC actions and violence.