AGP Executive Report

South Africa–US Rift: Pretoria again summoned US Ambassador Leo Bozell after Washington demanded clarity over Pretoria’s “five asks,” deepening a diplomatic standoff that’s now playing out alongside G20 exclusion and land/race disputes. Migration & Deportations: Anti-illegal immigration protesters marched in Durban as South Africa faces renewed xenophobia fears, while in the US African immigrants in New York say ICE crackdowns are tearing families apart; meanwhile the EU plans its first deportation “return hub” in Africa for 2027. Public Safety & Crime: Gauteng’s mass-killing and kidnapping crisis is worsening, with opposition pushing for clearer strategy, staffing, and protection from criminal infiltration. Health Crisis in Congo: A Congolese politician was beaten to death after defending the Ebola response, underscoring how mistrust is slowing efforts in North Kivu. Energy & Development: Riversdale inaugurated a solar project aimed at making it South Africa’s first energy-independent town; in Kenya, security is tight as Dangote’s $16bn East Africa refinery breaks ground, framed by Ruto as a leap for regional integration. Governance Watch: A midpoint review of South Africa’s Government of National Unity finds only 34% of 120 commitments moving, with most not yet started. Morocco Milestone: Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri becomes Morocco’s first woman prime minister, after a historic appointment.

G20 Trade Tensions: G20 trade ministers opened talks in Milwaukee amid US tariff pressure and accusations of forced labour and industrial overcapacity, with analysts expecting deadlock as China rejects “excess capacity” claims. East Africa Energy Push: Aliko Dangote and Kenya’s William Ruto are set to break ground on a $16bn, 700,000-bpd refinery in Lamu aimed at fuel self-sufficiency, but construction faces a community land-dispute lawsuit. South Africa GBV Crackdown: President Cyril Ramaphosa announced urgent measures after 11 women were found dead in Ekurhuleni since July, including a 60-day safety audit, a forensic backlog review, and renewed police and prosecution action. Health Costs: South Africans will pay more for private-sector medicines from Thursday after a 2.8% regulated price increase. US–SA Diplomatic Row: South Africa summoned US Ambassador Leo Bozell again over “undiplomatic conduct,” as Washington also signals visa restrictions tied to Pretoria’s response to its demands. Nigeria Creative Economy: Nigeria’s government says CANEX 2026 in Lagos will draw 10,000+ participants to connect creative industries with investors and markets.

South Africa GBV Crackdown: President Cyril Ramaphosa ordered every municipality to run women’s safety audits within 60 days and fix urgent hazards within 90 days, after the discovery of 11 women’s bodies in Ekurhuleni and renewed fears of femicide and violent crime. He also unveiled a four-point GBV plan: a national recovery operation for unresolved murders, rapes and serious sexual offences; a review of stalled cases by police and prosecutors; forensic backlog action; and a crackdown on alcohol-linked violence, with progress to be published. Morocco Leadership Shift: King Mohammed VI appointed Fatima Ezzahra Al Mansouri as Morocco’s first woman prime minister after her PAM party won the most seats, tasking her with forming a government. Nigeria Political Tensions: Tinubu dismissed health rumours after returning to Nigeria from a prolonged Europe trip, while Borno ADC condemned arrests of youths over “Tinubu Must Go” T-shirts. Minerals Transparency Fight (Nigeria-US): Atiku’s camp demanded full details of a US-Nigeria minerals agreement, arguing the government’s $700bn figure refers to resource value, not investment, and calling for publication of the MoU and related terms. Africa Finance Push: The AU-backed Africa Credit Rating Agency is set for launch in Mauritius on 7 October, aiming to cut Africa’s “risk premium” from global ratings. Fuel Self-Sufficiency Drive: Aliko Dangote reiterated that Africa could be largely fuel self-sufficient by 2030, as his Kenya refinery project nears launch.

Elections & Courts (Nigeria): A Federal High Court adjourned Omoyele Sowore’s cyberbullying case against Tinubu to October 2, while another court set October 13 for Atiku and the ADC to amend their eligibility suit against Tinubu and the APC—keeping 2027 legal battles front and centre. Political Realignments (Nigeria): Atiku endorsed the “Tinubu Must Go” movement, and NDC’s Obi/Kwankwaso welcomed thousands of APC and ADC defectors in Sokoto, signalling sharper coalition-building ahead of 2027. Governance & Accountability (South Africa): Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago warned that a major cyberattack on payment systems could trigger the next global financial crisis, urging stronger regulatory guardrails. Conflict & Security (Ethiopia): Fighting intensified in Tigray as government-aligned forces claimed capture of Alamata, after the TPLF formed a wider alliance aimed at toppling Abiy Ahmed. Public Health & Misinformation (DRC): A DRC politician was beaten to death after promoting Ebola prevention on radio, underscoring how misinformation can turn deadly as cases surpass 8,000. Regional Politics & Youth (Liberia): Young Liberians demanded bigger roles in 2029 politics, including youth representation in party leadership and the elections commission. Resource Nationalism (Burkina Faso): Burkina Faso opened its first gold refinery to process more value at home, part of the junta’s push to tighten control over mining profits. Information Integrity (Africa): The Federation of African Journalists urged governments to improve access to information to curb digital misinformation, especially during elections and emergencies.

Ghana–Food Security: Ghana’s Agriculture Ministry has urged the Finance Minister to reverse the country’s withdrawal from the West Africa Food System Resilience Programme, warning it could derail World Bank-backed contracts worth GH¢643.87m, including irrigation rehabilitation works. Nigeria–Fuel Subsidy Politics: ADC’s Dino Melaye says Atiku Abubakar’s plan to restore petrol subsidy could cut pump prices to N400–N500 per litre, escalating the campaign fight over Tinubu’s subsidy removal. Nigeria–Constitutional Crisis Claim: The AAC has sued President Tinubu over alleged failure to transmit required vacation declarations to parliament during his Europe trip, seeking court rulings on whether the delay was unconstitutional. South Africa–Diplomacy & Rights: South Africa welcomed an African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights promotion mission, setting up high-level engagements with government, Parliament, civil society and UN agencies. South Africa–Digital Jobs: A government-led Digital Skills Outreach Programme will connect TVET students to training and career pathways at Tshwane South TVET College. South Africa–Water Planning: The National Planning Commission and Water Research Commission convened an irrigation roundtable focused on livelihoods and climate-resilient water management. South Africa–Crime & Unity: President Ramaphosa called for action against “white genocide” misinformation, warning divisive rhetoric could worsen social cohesion amid ongoing violence concerns. Regional Security Watch: Analysts warn the Bab el-Mandeb risk is rising as Houthi control could pressure Red Sea shipping, with Djibouti, Egypt and Ethiopia facing the biggest exposure.

Ebola Surge in DR Congo: Congo’s confirmed Ebola cases have crossed 8,000, with the latest tally at 8,067 and 3,901 deaths, underscoring the scale of the outbreak. UN Diplomacy & Security Council Reform: Nigeria’s VP Kashim Shettima returned from UNGA81 after delivering Tinubu’s national statement, renewing calls for permanent African Security Council seats with veto power and pushing value addition for minerals. Tinubu Absence Sparks Political Fight: Nigeria’s Presidency says Tinubu is “hale and hearty” and will return this week, while Peter Obi and others question his prolonged stay abroad—sparking a sharp back-and-forth. South Africa Violence & GBV Warning: President Ramaphosa linked heritage to active defense against GBV, xenophobia and racial division as South Africa reels from mass shootings and the Ekurhuleni killings. Regional Water & Infrastructure Deals: South Africa and Zimbabwe are discussing a $500m Thuli Moswa dam to supply water to the Musina-Makhado SEZ, while Kenya prepares to break ground on a $16bn East African refinery at Lamu. Burkina Faso Power Consolidation: Burkina’s Captain Ibrahim Traoré marks four years in power, promising a harsher continuation of Sankara’s legacy.

South Africa Gun Violence: Police are hunting gunmen after two back-to-back mass shootings killed at least 27 people near Johannesburg and Cape Town, with reports of multiple attackers and links to criminal turf and business rivalry. Gender-Based Violence: In Ekurhuleni, a 10th and 11th woman’s body were found in about 10 weeks, renewing fears of serial killings and pushing calls for stronger protection. Nigeria Leadership Scrutiny: Opposition figures, led by Peter Obi and the ADC, demanded answers over President Tinubu’s prolonged absence abroad, questioning who is exercising authority while he is away. Cost of Living Politics: Atiku and the ADC attacked the N70,000 minimum wage as effectively shrinking under fuel and food prices, arguing it buys only about 50 litres of petrol. Ports & Trade: Nigeria approved upgrades for Onne, Rivers, Delta and Calabar ports to decongest Lagos and boost maritime competitiveness. Regional Diplomacy & Security Council Reform: UNGA messaging across Africa again focused on permanent Security Council seats and fairer global governance. Ethiopia Conflict: Tigray TV was hit by a drone as rebels advanced in northern Ethiopia, raising fears of a wider return to war.

South Africa Gun Violence: Police say 27 people were killed in two separate mass shootings within hours—17 dead at a bar west of Johannesburg (suspects allegedly searched patrons and took phones) and 10 killed at a shisanyama venue near Cape Town—while no arrests have been made and motives remain unclear, as gang-linked violence keeps shaping the political mood ahead of November municipal elections. Public Service AI Push: The AfDB and partners launched free AI training for African public servants in New York, aiming to improve how officials use AI for productivity and smarter procurement, with WHO also backing AI-assisted cross-border health preparedness. UNGA81 Diplomacy & Global Order: Egypt’s UNGA message stressed political solutions, national state strength, and Global South representation; meanwhile, debates on UN reform and Security Council seats for Africa continued to dominate. Nigeria 2027 Politics: Political economist Pat Utomi backed Peter Obi’s 2027 bid with conditions, while the Tinubu camp dismissed Atiku’s ambition as “a joke,” underscoring a fast-heating presidential race. Energy & Trade Signals: Germany’s foreign minister said Europe wants more Canadian LNG, while AfDB urged clean cooking to be central to Africa’s energy transition.

UN Security Council Reform Push: Russia’s Lavrov backed India for a permanent UN Security Council seat while warning against adding Western seats, backing broader Asia-Africa-Latin America representation. Nile Water Security: Egypt’s PM Madbouly told UNGA the Nile is an “existential issue,” calling for binding agreements and rejecting unilateral moves as Ethiopia’s dam dispute continues. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt and Turkey endorsed Trump’s Gaza peace plan at UNGA, while Egypt also stressed Gulf security and rejected forced displacement of Palestinians. South Africa Femicide Alarm: Police found another woman’s body in Ekurhuleni, bringing deaths to 10 in two months and renewing fears of serial killings as investigations continue. Xenophobia Returns: Nigeria evacuated 105 Nigerians from South Africa after attacks; 100 tickets were funded by RCCG donations, bringing total returnees to 1,821. Energy & Industry: Kenya received first cargo of 2,930 tonnes of machinery for Dangote’s East Africa refinery in Lamu; Uganda’s Fine Spinners added $5m to expand textile capacity. Governance & Tech: AfDB and partners launched free AI training for African public officials at UNGA81.

Energy & Industrial Policy: Kenya’s President William Ruto pledged full government backing for Aliko Dangote’s planned Lamu refinery, saying land is secured and bureaucracy won’t slow the project, while Dangote offered a 1,000MW power plant with 500MW for Kenya—aimed at reliable baseload power for refining and the Lamu special economic zone. Regional Integration: Nigeria’s VP Kashim Shettima urged the new ECOWAS Commission leadership to prioritise unity, integration and private-sector delivery for the Lagos–Abidjan highway, linking ECOWAS engagement to emerging blocs like the Alliance of Sahel States. UN Diplomacy & Governance: India pushed for stronger Global South voice and urgent UN Security Council reform at the G77 foreign ministers’ meeting, as African leaders renewed calls for permanent representation and a more accountable UN system. Public Health: The Ouagadougou Partnership warned Francophone West Africa’s family planning gains are fragile amid funding uncertainty, while ALMA said a 30% malaria financing cut could trigger 146 million more cases by 2030. Security & Rights: South Africa’s ambassador to the US, Roelf Meyer, rejected claims that farm murders amount to political persecution, warning such framing could harm bilateral relations. Crime & Safety: AFP reported a growing Mexico-linked methamphetamine network across southern Africa, and South Africa’s women runners are arming themselves after a string of killings.

UN Diplomacy: Algeria’s Ahmed Attaf met OIC foreign ministers and US officials at UNGA81, while also holding talks with South Africa, Namibia, Nigeria and Eritrea, underscoring Algeria’s push for regional coordination. Ebola Response: Africa CDC chief Jean Kaseya says DRC’s Ebola contact tracing is far below expected scale—about 30,000 contacts listed versus 400,000 expected—warning transmission is still beyond surveillance reach. Digital Governance: AfDB launched free AI training for African public officials at UNGA, and a GSMA/PDAA roadmap flags a key gap: 906 million Africans live in mobile broadband coverage but still aren’t using mobile internet. Security & UN Reform: Nigeria’s Tinubu warned terrorists and cybercriminals exploit cross-border security gaps; meanwhile, multiple leaders renewed calls for Africa to get permanent UN Security Council seats with veto power. Health & Education: Ghana’s education minister says the ACCELERATE+ conference is ready to tackle education in emergencies, and Ghana also prepares to host the event. Economy & Industry: IATA says African airlines face “squeezing” from high taxes and fees, while Liberia’s cassava push is framed as “new white gold” for industrialization. Politics & Elections: Peter Obi vowed to jail anyone who rigs Nigeria’s 2027 elections, and Nigeria’s 2027 NASS race is drawing children of prominent politicians.

UN Security Council Reform Push: Nigeria’s VP Kashim Shettima, speaking for Tinubu, renewed the demand for at least two permanent African seats on the UN Security Council with veto powers, plus five non-permanent seats, arguing the 1945 power setup no longer fits 2026 realities. Liberia’s Boakai on Trust and Finance: President Joseph Boakai told the UN that broken principles and an unfair global financial system demand urgent Security Council and debt/financing reforms. Somalia’s UN Reset: Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said the UN should not leave, but must work through Somali institutions and back the country’s security transition, while also pressing for stronger African representation. Fuel as a Political Flashpoint (Nigeria): NNPC and private pump prices rose to about N1,385–N1,456 per litre across states after Dangote’s cut, setting up fresh political pressure ahead of 2027. Liberia Court Fight: Lawyers for former VP Jewel Howard-Taylor sought Supreme Court review of her bail restrictions, as her legal battle drags on. Child Nutrition Funding: African leaders urged more domestic investment to cut preventable child deaths and stunting, citing progress but warning funding gaps persist. Senegal Refinery Plan: Senegal’s state refiner SAR signed an MoU for a major refinery push aimed at reducing fuel imports and expanding regional supply. South Africa Local Politics: IEC candidate lists for 2026 local elections show the SACP surging in deployment, signaling a potential shift in municipal power. US Travel Risk List: The US placed 10 African countries on its Level 4 “Do Not Travel” list, citing extreme security risks and limited consular help.

UNGA & Climate Justice: Ghana’s President Mahama told the UN General Assembly that climate change is the “ultimate test of global equity,” urging predictable, non-debt climate finance as Africa faces erratic rains, erosion and Sahel desertification. Healthcare Delivery: Mahama also spotlighted Ghana’s Free Primary Healthcare and the MahamaCare fund as proof that democracy must deliver tangible social benefits. UN Security Council Reform: Multiple leaders renewed the push for permanent African seats at the UN Security Council, with Mahama calling reform “not a favour,” while Portugal’s premier backed permanent seats for Africa, Brazil and India and the G4 pressed for broader UNSC changes. Reparations & Heritage: Ghana’s Ablakwa and Mahama argued for restitution of African artefacts and human remains held abroad, tying returns to reparatory justice. Ebola Funding: Africa CDC said $2.9bn has been mobilized for Ebola response in the region as cases surge in the DRC. Energy & Regional Trade: Ethiopia and Djibouti hailed Dangote’s $660m Damarjog–Dewele pipeline as a game-changer for energy security and jobs, while S&P Global opened an Abuja office to build West Africa petroleum pricing benchmarks. South Africa Security: Ramaphosa announced a national address on Ekurhuleni murders and gender-based violence after nine women’s bodies were found. Nigeria Politics: ADC named Senator Austin Akobundu as campaign DG and unveiled a lean 2027 campaign council with El-Rufai and Kashim Imam in key roles. Public Safety: Cape Town police investigated a burnt body found in Delft amid public fears of mob justice.

ICC Accountability: The International Criminal Court convicted Central African Republic rebel commander Mahamat Said Abdel Kani of crimes against humanity, including torture and unlawful imprisonment, with sentencing to follow. Violence & State Capacity: South Africa’s KwaMakhutha massacre left 11 dead, including a pregnant woman, underscoring how organised crime and weak protection deepen fear and grief. Democracy Under Pressure: Ghana’s National Peace Council warned that political money, disinformation and shrinking civic space are eroding electoral integrity across Africa. Electoral Integrity & Civic Rights: ECOWAS opened recruitment for nationals across its institutions, while also flagging the need for stronger governance capacity. UN Security Council Reform: G4 foreign ministers (Brazil, Germany, India, Japan) urged early UNSC reform, echoing Africa’s long-running push for permanent representation. Security Threats Beyond Borders: A POLITICO/Code for Africa investigation says Russia is using online ads and Western digital infrastructure to recruit foreigners, including from Africa, for Ukraine war roles. Energy & Industry: Dangote’s planned $20bn Kenya refinery in Lamu targets up to 700,000 barrels daily, with President Ruto expected to lead the September 30 groundbreaking. Water & Public Services: Ghana is negotiating to buy the Teshie desalination plant to avoid paying a reported $235m arbitration award.

UN Justice & Accountability: The ICC convicted Mahamat Said Abdel Kani for crimes against humanity tied to the Seleka in the Central African Republic, a milestone for victims but also a reminder that abuses and accountability gaps persist. Horn of Africa Security: Ethiopia’s president told the UN it has shown “immense restraint” despite “reckless external actors,” as renewed Tigray–federal fighting shattered a peace deal. South Africa Violence: Gunmen killed at least 11 people, including a pregnant woman, in a KwaMakhutha house-party attack; police say motives are unclear and a feud between rival groups can’t be ruled out. Nigeria Governance & Security Debate: Defence Minister Christopher Musa proposed mandatory military training for every Nigerian, while FCT Minister Nyesom Wike denied rigging claims over the 2023 election. Energy, Finance & Infrastructure: Finance minister Taiwo Oyedele warned high borrowing costs and currency risks are choking Africa’s infrastructure and climate finance push. Regional Development & Trade: Eastern Africa’s horticulture leaders urged governments to treat cold-chain logistics and trade facilitation as strategic investments. UNGA Diplomacy: Ghana’s Mahama secured UNGA-side commitments on trade and technology, while Ethiopia’s and other leaders renewed calls for fairer global representation. Crime & Cross-border Risk: A major arms-deals case in the UK ended with 16-year sentences for middlemen supplying embargoed destinations, including Sudan and Libya.

UN Security Council Reform Push: G4 foreign ministers (Brazil, Germany, India, Japan) urged urgent UNSC overhaul at UNGA 81, saying the council’s “anachronistic” structure undermines peace and security. UNGA Diplomacy in North Africa: Egypt and Morocco’s FMs met in New York to deepen bilateral ties and coordinate on Palestine, Sudan and Libya; Algeria’s Attaf also held talks with Tunisia and Mozambique. South Africa Violence and Justice: A suspended police lieutenant-general appeared in court on rape and child sexual grooming charges; meanwhile, gunmen killed 11 (including a pregnant woman) in a Durban township attack, with motives under investigation. Ghana Health Financing Reset: President Mahama launched the Accra Reset panel report calling for a “new global bargain” so Global South countries control health funding and priorities. Africa Minerals Value Debate: Nigeria’s Shettima urged Africa to stop exporting raw mineral wealth without local processing, backing regional corridors and coordinated policy. Food Security Shock: Save the Children warned Super El Niño could drive 8 million children into acute hunger across East and Southern Africa by early 2027. Regional Security Cooperation: West African interior ministers called for tighter cross-border coordination to tackle transnational crime and improve border management. South Sudan Elections Roadmap: President Salva Kiir dissolved the transitional government and legislature ahead of December elections, installing a caretaker administration.